fc.The Financial CurrentPublished by Paul Ivinskas
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Economic data

Retail sales rise 0.8% in September to $745.0 billion, Census Bureau estimates

Advance estimates show retail and food services sales up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from September 2025, with gasoline stations up 6.4% on the month; the figures are not adjusted for price changes.

Analysis

Because the Census Bureau's retail figures are not adjusted for price changes, higher prices at the pump or the store can lift the dollar totals without more goods being sold. September's report shows both a broad gain and an especially large rise in sales at gasoline stations.

The headline estimate

The Census Bureau's advance estimate put September retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading-day differences. That was 0.8% above August, with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% above September 2025, plus or minus 0.5 points [1][2].

The bureau also revised August's monthly gain to 1.3% from the 1.1% it first reported [1].

By type of business

Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, sales rose 0.9% from August and 7.2% from a year earlier. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 0.2% on the month and 2.5% on the year [2].

Sales at gasoline stations were $68.0 billion, up 6.4% from August and 28.1% from September 2025. Nonstore retailers rose 0.3% on the month, and food services and drinking places rose 1.1% [2].

A note on prices

The bureau states that the figures are not adjusted for price changes. A rise in dollar sales therefore reflects a mix of changes in prices and in the quantity bought, and the report does not separate the two [1].

What remains uncertain

These are advance estimates drawn from a sample of retailers, and the bureau revises them in later releases, as the change to August's figure shows. The 0.4-point margin of error on the monthly change means the true figure could differ noticeably from 0.8%.

Sources

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