Analysis
September's jump came mostly from energy: the energy index is up 20.4% from a year earlier, led by a 34.2% rise in gasoline. Prices outside food and energy rose at the same monthly pace as in August, though their 12-month rate edged up to 2.6% from 2.4%. That gap between a fuel-driven headline number and steadier underlying inflation is what policymakers and households are weighing heading into the Federal Reserve's next decisions.
The September numbers
The for all urban consumers rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4% in August [1]. Before seasonal adjustment, it was 3.7% higher than a year earlier, up from a 3.4% annual rate in August [1].
The gasoline index rose 9.1% in the month and accounted for over half of the overall increase; before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 6.5% [1]. The broader energy index rose 5.2% in September and is up 20.4% over 12 months, with gasoline up 34.2% and fuel oil up 74.2% from a year earlier [1].
Food prices were unchanged in September: grocery prices fell 0.1%, with beef down 1.0% and milk down 2.0%, while restaurant prices rose 0.2% [1]. Over the year, food prices are up 2.5% [1].
| Measure | Change in September | Change over 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| All items | +0.6% | +3.7% |
| Energy | +5.2% | +20.4% |
| Gasoline | +9.1% | +34.2% |
| Food | 0.0% | +2.5% |
| All items less food and energy | +0.3% | +2.6% |
| Shelter | +0.4% | +3.2% |
Prices outside food and energy
Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% in September, the same as in August, and 2.6% over the year, up from 2.4% [1]. Shelter costs rose 0.4%, with owners' equivalent rent up 0.3% and rent up 0.2% [1]. Used cars and trucks rose 0.7%, education 0.6% and airline fares 1.2%; airline fares are up 22.4% over the year [1]. Prescription drug prices fell 1.2% and communication prices fell 0.2% [1].
A separate index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, the measure used to set Social Security's annual cost-of-living adjustment, rose 3.9% over the 12 months to September [1]. The October report is scheduled for November 10 [1].
What remains uncertain
Monthly changes are estimates with sampling error; BLS puts the standard error of the one-month all-items change at about 0.04 percentage point. Seasonally adjusted figures are revised for up to five years. Market forecasts for the release are not included here.