Prices and business expectations
Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August, Statistics Canada reported October 19. Gasoline prices were 27.8% above a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, annual inflation eased to 2.2% from 2.4%. Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the month before seasonal adjustment and 0.4% after adjustment. [1]
A separate Bank of Canada release the same day showed why the timing of surveys matters. Its third-quarter Business Outlook Survey found improved sentiment overall, but about three-quarters of interviews occurred before Canada-US trade talks broke down on August 21. The interviews ran from August 6 through September 2. [2]
Evidence collected after the breakdown showed weaker business sentiment, softer export expectations and more pressure on investment plans. Firms' inflation expectations also increased as new tariffs and higher oil prices raised costs. Even so, the bank said sentiment remained substantially stronger than during the height of trade tensions in 2025. [2]
The inflation figures measure recorded price changes. The business survey describes respondents' expectations and experiences; it is not a forecast or interest-rate decision.