Analysis
The headline index barely moved and sits almost exactly on its long-run average, so the survey does not show a sharp turn. The details lean cautious: fewer owners see this as a good time to expand, inflation is now the second-biggest problem owners name, and more are paying higher rates on loans.
The September reading
On October 13, 2026, the NFIB reported that its Small Business Optimism Index, a monthly survey of its small-business members, fell 0.8 point to 97.9 in September. That is 0.1 below the survey's 52-year average of 98.0. The group's Uncertainty Index, which tracks how unsure owners say they are about the economy, rose 1 point to 90, well above its historical average of 68. [1]
NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said, "Small business optimism stayed near the long-term average in September," adding that "small business owners are proceeding with caution." [1]
Expansion plans and business health
Seven percent of owners said it is a good time to expand, down 5 points. A net 6% expect better business conditions in six months, down 4 points. A "net" figure is the share expecting improvement minus the share expecting deterioration. Owners rating their business health as good fell 9 points to 48%, while those calling it fair rose 7 points to 35%. [1]
Problems owners named, and borrowing costs
Asked for the single most important problem facing their business, 26% of owners named labor quality or availability, up 3 points and the top issue for a third straight month. Inflation was named by 20%, up 4 points from August, against a historical average of 7%. Poor sales and taxes were each cited by 11%; poor sales rose 1 point, while taxes fell 5 points. [1]
A net 8% of owners said they paid a higher rate on their most recent loan, up 4 points and the highest share since June 2025. The average rate paid on short-term loans was 8.2%, up 0.7 point, compared with a historical average of 8.3%. [1]
On hiring, 32% had job openings they could not fill, down 3 points. Among the 51% hiring or trying to hire, 87% reported few or no qualified applicants. A net 17% plan to create jobs in the next three months, unchanged. [1]
What remains uncertain
The NFIB survey covers its own members and reports owners' perceptions rather than measured economic activity. Monthly changes of under one point are small relative to normal survey variation.