Analysis
The survey adds a timely household view of prices, credit and labor conditions. Expectations can influence spending and wage behavior, but they are not a measure of realized inflation and do not by themselves establish the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.
Near-term inflation expectations increase
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said median one-year inflation expectations increased 0.3 percentage point to 3.9% in September, the highest reading since May 2023. Three-year expectations rose 0.1 point to 3.3%, while five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.0%.
The survey was fielded September 1–30 and released October 7. Expected price increases rose for gasoline, food, medical care, college education and rent, according to the bank.
Credit access worsens, but missed-payment concern declines
Respondents’ views of current credit access compared with a year earlier deteriorated. Expectations for credit availability one year ahead were broadly unchanged.
The mean probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell 1.0 percentage point to 12.2%, below its 12-month average of 12.7%. These figures describe survey responses, not observed rates.
Labor and household expectations are mixed
The mean probability of losing a job in the next year slipped to 13.5%, the lowest since December 2024, while the probability of finding a job after a job loss rose to 46.1%. Median expected household-income growth edged up to 3.1%.
Median expected household-spending growth increased to 5.5%, its highest level since May 2023. At the same time, respondents’ assessment of their future financial situation deteriorated.
What remains uncertain
The Survey of Consumer Expectations is a rotating internet panel of roughly 1,300 household heads. It measures reported expectations and perceived probabilities; it is not the Consumer Price Index, a lender performance dataset or a prediction guaranteed to occur.