Analysis
Upstart reported $4,117.8 million of originations for July through September. It reported September originations of $1,378.3 million and $53.1 million per effective origination day, versus $1,342.1 million and $50.7 million in August. Those figures imply increases of 2.7% and 4.7%, respectively. The daily measure adjusts for differently weighted business days, weekends and holidays. Its October 5 Upstart Macro Index reading declined to 1.49 from 1.50 on September 3. The index estimates macroeconomic effects on losses for Upstart-powered loans; 1.49 denotes estimated losses about 49% above its normal-economy baseline, not a 49% default rate. The release pairs a higher lending pace with only a small improvement in the company’s risk assessment. That combination does not establish improved profitability or an economy-wide credit trend.
What remains uncertain
Origination figures are preliminary and unaudited. UMI is proprietary, borrower-base-specific and subject to revision; it is not a forecast of overall economic conditions or future loan performance.