Analysis
The financing divide tracks collateral. Controlling for country, industry and firm size, plans to invest in AI tools or data infrastructure were each associated with a 16-percentage-point increase in the probability of combining internal and external finance. Hiring specialists was associated with a smaller nine-point increase, while training had no statistically significant effect. The authors infer that intangible capability-building is harder to finance externally than hardware and infrastructure. This is evidence about intended financing, not proof of completed lending or investment, and the policy interpretation is the authors’ rather than an ECB Governing Council position.
What remains uncertain
SAFE responses describe firms’ plans for the next 12 months and may not predict actual spending, loan demand or funding outcomes. The sample covers euro-area firms, and the regression associations do not by themselves establish that collateral caused the financing choices. The ECB page expressly says the authors’ views do not necessarily represent the ECB or Eurosystem.