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July home-price releases show modest national gains and regional gaps

September 29 releases show U.S. house prices rising modestly in July. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted purchase-only index increased 0.3% month over month and 2.6% from a year earlier. Separately, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index rose 1.9% year over year on an unadjusted basis and 0.3% month over month after seasonal adjustment.

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Analysis

Analysis: The different annual rates reflect different index construction and coverage; they should not be combined into one trend. FHFA’s Mountain division fell 0.8% in July and was up 0.6% annually, compared with Middle Atlantic gains of 1.5% and 6.3%. The Mountain result gives regional context for Utah, not a Utah-specific estimate. For mortgage and home-equity risk, compare local collateral evidence, borrower cash flow and lien position rather than relying on the national average.

What remains uncertain

The observations cover July, not current home values. S&P reported no valid July Detroit update because of Wayne County recording delays, and supplied a June update instead. FHFA’s headline series uses purchase transactions associated with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages.

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